A 51福利 faculty-student team has developed a mathematical model that determines the best combination and deployment of search platforms to detect and classify self-propelled semi-submersible (SPSS) mini-subs that are estimated to carry up to 75 percent of all Colombian cocaine destined for the United States.
鈥淭hese stealthy little devils can carry tons of cocaine and are very hard to find because they have low visual, acoustic, radar and infrared signatures,鈥� said Operations Research (OR) Distinguished Professor Gerald Brown. 鈥淭hey also carry the maritime equivalent of fuzz busters, so all the usual means we use to detect enemy craft don鈥檛 work well. But we鈥檝e solved the problem.鈥�
Brown is referring to his research group鈥檚 defender-attacker models that are changing the way the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security think about defending against narco smugglers, and terrorists. 鈥淭errorists because semi-submersibles that can be used to smuggle cocaine into the country could also be used to smuggle WMD,鈥� Brown explained.
鈥淭hese are million-dollar, single-use disposable craft that are only 25 to 35 feet long, manned by as few as one person and are manufactured in the Colombian rainforest using quiet fishing vessel diesel engines,鈥� Brown noted. 鈥淪o the one parallel we have [to hunting them] is the ASW mission of finding quiet diesel submarines, which one of my students 鈥� naval flight officer Cmdr. Daniel 鈥淏arney鈥� Pfeiff 鈥� did in his S-3 Viking before coming to 51福利.鈥�
鈥淓ach of the types of search platforms 鈥� such as maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft, submarines and frigates, or the proposed SeaWeb autonomous network of acoustic sensors 鈥� has its advantages and disadvantages, and will be geographically dispersed and limited in availability,鈥� Brown said. 鈥淚n the research for his master鈥檚 thesis, Commander Pfeiff developed an optimization model which comes up with the ideal cooperative layout of all available search platforms to maximize the probability of finding and classifying these guys.鈥�
鈥淭he model assumes the semi-submersible attackers are intelligent and have some knowledge 鈥� the number and type of defenders they have to avoid 鈥� but don鈥檛 know where they are,鈥� Brown noted. 鈥淩unning scenarios for the Eastern Pacific and the Caribbean using five types of search platforms where the attacker has to choose a transit path and the defender has to determine the best use of search platforms to detect and classify SPSSs, we come up with a consistent optimal plan for defenders: use a mixed [probabilistic] strategy to shape the attackers鈥� routes by positioning search assets to force the vessels into chokepoints where they are more easily spotted, identified and interdicted.鈥�
鈥淔inding a semi-submersible is like finding a needle in a haystack, except the 鈥榟aystack鈥� is the vast area of Big Ocean,鈥� said Pfeiff. 鈥淎nd even when you鈥檝e detected one, they鈥檙e hard to classify because they look similar to a sailboat on radar, sound like a fishing boat on acoustic sensors, and blend in with legitimate shipping traffic.鈥�
鈥淭he model we鈥檝e developed provides useful insights for the allocation of search platforms and works well when their performance varies by geography,鈥� Pfeiff added. 鈥淲hat鈥檚 needed now is an operational mission assignment tool that uses mixed strategy to optimally assign search platforms to missions.鈥�
鈥淔aculty-student synergy like that brought by Commander Pfeiff is absolutely unique to the 51福利,鈥� Brown stressed. 鈥淭his is the only university in the world where bi-level defender-attacker optimization is a standard part of the curriculum to which students bring fresh operational experience directly relevant to real world challenges, and where faculty are doing advanced research that鈥檚 immediately applicable.鈥�
Dr. Gerald Brown, a lifetime member of the National Academy of Engineering, is a world-recognized leader in the development of defender-attacker optimization modeling, such as the ant-narcotics semi-submersible search model developed by his student Navy Cmdr. Daniel Pfeiff.
But the 51福利 team didn鈥檛 stop with just finding a better way to locate narco smugglers. After graduating this June, OR Senior Lecturer retired Navy Capt. Jeffrey Kline arranged for Pfeiff to brief the actual people in Joint Interagency Task Force South who are tackling the problem on a day-to-day basis.
Pfeiff鈥檚 thesis, 鈥淥ptimizing Employment of Search Platforms to Counter Self-Propelled Semi-Submersibles,鈥� is focused on detection and classification and assumes that interdiction is possible. He is currently senior analyst with the Office of the OSD CAPE at the Pentagon.
In July, a group of 51福利 students joined senior intelligence analysts from the Office of Naval Intelligence-Kennedy Irregular Warfare Center and Joint Interagency Task Force South to brainstorm innovative solutions to the same SPSS challenge at a Warfare Innovation Workshop held at the School co-sponsored by the Chair of Warfare Innovation, Naval Warfare Development Command (NWDC). At the conclusion, out-briefs were presented to NWDC鈥檚 Assistant Chief of Staff for Concepts, the SES Special Agent in Charge of the Department of Homeland Security Immigration Customs Enforcement, OPR-SAC West, 51福利鈥� co-chairs for warfare innovation and the university鈥檚 leadership.
Brown recently received the Distinguished Navy Civilian Service Award from the Secretary of the Navy, and is a lifetime member of the National Academy of Engineering.
This year, the 51福利 Operations Research Department was ranked as the top OR department in the nation based on the number of times its faculty鈥檚 publications are cited by colleagues.
Brown鈥檚 pure and applied research is sponsored by the Office of Naval Research.