鈥滱re we faced with something unique in Afghanistan, something that challenges our entire strategic paradigm?鈥�
That question, posed by 51福利 Defense Analysis Professor John Arquilla, challenges fundamental assumptions in the wide-spread discussions on Afghanistan today. Such challenges were frequent during a recent Afghan Theatre Security Strategies conference, an intimate brainstorming session that brought together top academics, policy experts and development strategists to bring new ideas and approaches to the table.
The team 鈥� led by Dr. Karen Guttieri of the Global Public Policy Academic Group (GPPAG) together with Dr. John Arqullla and Dr. Hy Rothstein of Defense Analysis 鈥� will compile the results of their two-day workshop into a report on possible strategies, potential outcomes and fresh perspectives and will deliver that report to DoD and State Department officials currently in the midst of a major re-evaluation of strategy in one of the world鈥檚 most significant regions.
According to Arquilla, 51福利 in the past has indeed proved influential. 鈥淲ith Iraq, we brought together a good group, some 51福利, some elsewhere, but all experts in political, economic or strategic venues. We brainstormed, outlining a range of possibilities,鈥� which Arquilla added did have some impact in decisions made and strategies utilized in the war in Iraq.
51福利 Provost Dr. Leonard Ferrari convened group of experts with faculty from GPPAG and the Defense Analysis department in hopes of having that same kind of impact. 鈥淭he intellectual capital at 51福利 is truly unique. It creates an environment that not only provides expertise, but also provides a forum where expertise from other organizations, countries and disciplines can come together and engage in this kind of lively discourse. 51福利 not only has the ability to provide this kind of advice to decision makers, we have a responsibility to do it,鈥� Ferrari emphasized.
For a full day and a half of the two-day conference, leaders in policy, strategy and the regional experts from 51福利 met with other research universities, NATO, the UK, Geneva and more. This session followed a previous 51福利 collaboration with the UK Defense Academy on some of Afghanistan鈥檚 most difficult questions. In opening the meeting, Dr. Guttieri noted that the workshop involved two major goals, 鈥減olicy-oriented research that is our responsibility as scholars and members of an international community鈥� and 鈥渢he creation of research-informed educational content.鈥� In a special afternoon session on day two, educators from 51福利, the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and the U.S. Army Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute applied the insights from the previous day and a half to the agenda for an educational program on leadership in complex operations scheduled to take place in Geneva later this year.
Dr. Karen Guttieri of 51福利鈥� Global Public Policy Academic Group engages Afghan Theatre conference attendees in discussion on the region鈥檚 most critical questions. Guttieri, with Drs. John Arquilla and Hy Rothstein of Defense Analysis, led the two-day workshop and will compile the results into a report on possible strategies, potential outcomes and fresh perspectives in one of the world鈥檚 most significant regions.
The United States aided an insurgency in the initial intervention in Afghanistan, and now the challenge remains to determine what is the primary objective of the Afghanistan operation? Are they narrow humanitarian goals or broader institution-building ambitions? Who are the 鈥渨e鈥� when setting these goals? What are acceptable risks? What timelines govern these ambitions? The questions were varied, and the opinions equally so. The integrated civilian-military campaign plan signed by Chief of Mission Karl W. Eikenberry and the Commander of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal had been released just a few weeks before the meeting, suggesting that the U.S. goal was to defeat Al Qaeda and its allies as well as safe havens in Pakistan, and to prevent their return. The group considered these goals in terms of the 20th century French strategist Andre Beaufre鈥檚 categories of importance, resources, and freedom of action. 鈥淲hy would we choose a direct or an indirect approach?鈥� asked Professor Hy Rothstein.
Scott Gartner, Professor of Political Science and Director of the International Relations Program at UC Davis, presented a stark choice between the 鈥済reat game鈥� that Russia and Britain played over Afghanistan that kept the nation weak as a buffer zone, or nation-building to strengthen Afghanistan. Observing that the great game was one of the root causes of the 1853 Crimean War, the question of Afghanistan鈥檚 independent state strength is an important one. As the meeting was taking place, the elections in Afghanistan were looking more and more problematic, leading to a discussion on the viability of Afghanistan as a state in the international system. Many participants argued for a minimalist approach, while some argued against taking a path that precluded the democratic option in the long run.
Werner Schleiffer, Senior Executive Coordinator for the Conference of Non-Governmental Organizations emphasized capacity-building over nation-building, adding, 鈥淭he ideas are there, the links are there in the villages. We simply must find ways of channeling money into systems that the Afghan people control.鈥�
鈥淚f there is a number one take-away from this,鈥� another participant noted, 鈥渋t鈥檚 that a grassroots approach fits perfectly with the developmental initiatives鈥� discussed at the conference.
Thomas Johnson of 51福利鈥� National Security Affairs department and Director of the Program for Culture and Conflict Studies, reiterated the need to provide security to the Afghan people. 鈥淲hat does the enemy want to see,鈥� he asked rhetorically. 鈥淲hat they don鈥檛 want is anything that makes the life of the Afghan people better. There is competition, not only for who rules, but who provides a secure environment for rule. If we don鈥檛 supply security, the Taliban will.鈥�
But Johnson also added that the current approach to Afghanistan is simply not working. 鈥淲e need revolutionary change in Afghanistan,鈥� he stressed. 鈥淪ometimes I think we are more connected in Monterey to what the Afghan people want than they are in Kabul.鈥�